The U.S.–Iran Conflict Moves Toward a “War of Attrition”

 

The U.S.–Iran Conflict Moves Toward a “War of Attrition”

— Three Reasons a Short, Decisive War Is Impossible and What It Means for the Middle East
 

 

March 16, 2026

Tomo Nakamaru

Former World Bank Economist
 

Theme: Middle East Affairs

In a video released yesterday by Jiji Press, former Japanese Ambassador to Iran, Mitsugu Saito, stated that “the United States and Iran have entered a war of attrition.”
This is not merely a military analysis; it is an important observation that reveals the true nature of warfare in the 21st century.

(Video: “U.S.–Iran conflict taking on the form of a war of attrition; could last for months — former ambassador”)

 

The United States and Israel aimed for a “short, decisive war” by eliminating Iran’s supreme leader and striking nuclear facilities.
However, Iran’s governing structure is centered around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the regime does not collapse even if the top leader is removed.
 

The U.S. cannot deploy ground forces, and airstrikes alone cannot bring the conflict to an end.

Iran, unable to win a conventional war, has instead adopted an “asymmetric strategy.”
By exerting pressure to close the Strait of Hormuz, attacking oil facilities in the Gulf, and using proxy forces,
Iran raises the political cost for the United States by destabilizing global oil markets.

 

When crude oil prices rise, gasoline prices in the U.S. increase, directly affecting the administration’s approval ratings.
This structure pushes the conflict toward a “months-long war of attrition.”
 

There is no decisive military blow, no room for political compromise, and economic pressure only prolongs the conflict.

In other words, the military, political, and economic layers together prevent the war from ending.

 

Meanwhile, the Middle East is becoming increasingly multipolar, with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran each pursuing their own strategic paths.
U.S. influence is declining relative to the past, and the regional order is becoming more unstable.

 

The U.S.–Iran confrontation symbolizes the arrival of an era in which wars in the 21st century no longer reach a clear conclusion.
Military power alone cannot end them; energy markets and political calendars now shape the course of conflict.

Understanding this structure is essential for Japan as it considers its own national security and energy strategy.

 

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Diagram 1: Three-Tier Structure of Middle Eastern Power

┌──────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│            Middle East Power Structure        │
├──────────────────────────────────────────────┤

[Top Tier: U.S.–Israel Bloc] (Blue)
  • United States (hegemony / oil stability / Israel support)
  • Israel (preventing Iran’s nuclear capability)

[Middle Tier: Iran Bloc] (Red)
  • Iran (IRGC)
  • Hezbollah (Lebanon)
  • Houthis (Yemen)
  • Shia militias (Iraq, Syria)

[Bottom Tier: Middle Powers] (Green)
  • Saudi Arabia (closer to China)
  • Turkey (independent strategy)
  • UAE & Qatar (economic diplomacy)

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Diagram 2: Structure of the U.S.–Iran Asymmetric Conflict

┌──────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│      U.S. vs Iran: Structure of Asymmetric War│
├──────────────────────────────────────────────┤

[Left: U.S. Strategy] (Blue)
  • Decapitation strike
  • Strengthened sanctions
  • Limited airstrikes
  • Support for allies
        ↓ (Short war strategy failed)

[Right: Iran’s Strategy] (Red)
  • Pressure to close the Strait of Hormuz
  • Attacks on oil facilities
  • Use of proxy forces
  • Regime consolidation via IRGC
  • Exploiting U.S. political timelines

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Diagram 3: Three Structural Factors Prolonging the War

              Structural Factors Behind Prolonged Conflict

                    ┌────────────────────┐
                    │ Military: No knockout blow │
                    └────────────────────┘
                    ┌────────────────────┐
                    │ Political: No room for compromise │
                    └────────────────────┘
                    ┌────────────────────┐
                    │ Economic: High oil prices prolong conflict │
                    └────────────────────┘

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Diagram 4: Three Possible Scenarios Ahead

                Three Scenarios for the Future

┌──────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 1. Low-intensity war of attrition (most likely) │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌──────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 2. Large-scale Israeli attack → escalation       │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌──────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 3. U.S. disengagement → Middle East multipolarity │
└─────────────────────────────────