Emergency Report, Part II The Hormuz Strait Crisis and Japan’s Diplomatic Crossroads

 

Emergency Report, Part II

The Hormuz Strait Crisis and Japan’s Diplomatic Crossroads
 

— Reading the “Late Stage of Great-Powerism” Through a Civilizational Lens

March 17, 2026
Tomo Nakamaru

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I. The Hormuz Strait Crisis Is a Crisis of the International Civilizational Order

Although the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has entered a temporary lull since last night,
Japan’s four major newspapers—Asahi, Mainichi, Yomiuri, and Nikkei—all placed the issue prominently on their front pages.

Behind this lies not merely a regional Middle Eastern crisis, but a civilizational turning point in which the foundations of the international order itself are beginning to shake.

The essence of the current crisis can be distilled into two points:

• The United States’ unilateral preemptive strike without UN authorization—an unmistakable “runaway of great-powerism.”
• Iran’s closure of the strait—an act that destroys a global public good.

In other words, this is the moment when
the “logic of force” begins to overwhelm the “logic of law.”

Japan now finds itself squarely in the midst of this structural upheaval.

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II. What the Four Newspapers Reveal About Japan’s Strategic Position

1. Asahi: The Runaway of Great-Powerism and the Crisis of the Rule of Law

Asahi most clearly criticizes the U.S. violation of international law and the Japanese government’s reluctance to issue a legal assessment.
It warns that this hesitation risks undermining the very legitimacy of Japan’s diplomacy.

From a civilizational perspective, it signals that
accommodating great-powerism erodes the survival foundations of small-power states.

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2. Mainichi: Japan Should Contribute Through Diplomacy, Not Military Means

Mainichi emphasizes Japan’s long-standing trust and relationships in the Middle East.
This highlights the importance of “network capital,” the core asset of small-powerism.

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3. Yomiuri: Japan Should Lead the Creation of an International Cooperative Framework

While valuing the Japan–U.S. alliance, Yomiuri acknowledges the possibility that the U.S. action violates international law.
It proposes building an international framework through a UN resolution.

This represents a
hybrid approach between great-powerism and small-powerism.

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4. Nikkei: A Realist Call for a Comprehensive National-Interest Assessment

Nikkei organizes Japan’s strategic choices within a triangle of:

• Energy security
• The rule of law
• The Japan–U.S. alliance

From a civilizational standpoint, it suggests that
small-power states must refine the “art of balance” among multiple great powers.

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**III. Civilizational Analysis:

The Hormuz Crisis as the “Late Stage of Great-Powerism” and the Fragmentation of Small-Powerism**

1. The Late Stage of Great-Powerism

U.S. behavior exhibits classic traits of imperial-style great-powerism:

• Disregard for international law
• Shifting burdens onto allies
• Tolerating global economic disruption for domestic political gain

This closely resembles what I describe as the
“senescent phase of great-powerism.”

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2. The Fragmentation of Small-Powerism

Meanwhile, coordination among middle powers remains insufficient:

• Europe is recalibrating its distance from the U.S.
• Canada advocates middle-power cooperation
• Japan’s maneuverability is constrained by deteriorating relations with China

Thus emerges a dangerous structure in which
the runaway of great-powerism advances while small-power solidarity remains underdeveloped.

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3. Japan Is Being Pulled Apart by “Two Gravitational Forces”

Japan is simultaneously drawn by:

• The gravitational pull of great-powerism through the Japan–U.S. alliance
• The gravitational pull of small-powerism through the rule of law and diplomatic networks

This dual structure constitutes
both the greatest constraint and the greatest opportunity
for Japanese diplomacy.

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**IV. Japan’s Required Strategy:

The “Advanced Form of Small-Powerism” as a Survival Model**

1. Japan Should Not Dispatch the Self-Defense Forces Until a Law-Based Framework Exists

All four newspapers, to varying degrees, point to the difficulty of dispatching the SDF.

The reasons are clear:

• The U.S. action may violate international law
• Ensuring safety in an active combat zone is impossible
• Japan’s diplomatic assets in the Middle East would be damaged
• Japan would lose legitimacy in criticizing China and Russia

From a civilizational perspective, this is a
“classic failure pattern of small-power states drawn into great-power wars.”

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2. Japan’s Strength Lies in Diplomacy and Network Capital

Japan has built unique trust in the Middle East:

• Long-standing relations with Iran
• A record of non-military contributions
• Political trust from regional states

This is the greatest weapon of small-powerism.

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3. Japan Should Stand at the Center of Middle-Power Cooperation

Together with Canada, Australia, South Korea, ASEAN, and Europe,
Japan should position itself at the center of a
network that safeguards the rule of law.

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4. Improving Relations with China Is a Strategic Imperative

Between the two great-powerist poles—the U.S. and China—
Japan cannot act as a builder of small-powerist order
without at least a minimally stable relationship with China.

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**V. Conclusion:

The Hormuz Crisis Is a Civilizational Choice Point for Japan**

This crisis is not merely a diplomatic issue.
Japan now faces a civilizational choice:

• Will it decline by being drawn into great-powerism?
• Or will it elevate small-powerism and become a shaper of international order?

My conclusion is clear:

1. Avoid blind obedience to great-powerism
2. Maximize the strengths of small-powerism (law, diplomacy, networks)
3. Lead middle-power cooperation
4. Stabilize relations with China at a minimum level
5. Do not dispatch the SDF until a law-based international framework exists

Japan now stands at a historic moment in which it can present to the world
a new civilizational model: the advanced form of small-powerism.