The Hormuz Strait Crisis and the Japan–U.S. Summit

 

The Hormuz Strait Crisis and the Japan–U.S. Summit

— The Terminal Symptoms of Great-Powerism and the “Advanced Small-Power Strategy”

Restarting Japan through Monetary Normalization, Abolition of the Consumption Tax, and Dismantling Industrial Policy

---

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is not merely another geopolitical flare-up in the Middle East.
The U.S. preemptive strike conducted without UN authorization, Iran’s blockade of the strait, and the resulting turmoil in global energy markets—
taken together, these developments mark a civilizational turning point, where the logic of power begins to overwhelm the logic of law, signaling the senescence of great-powerism.

Amid this upheaval, the Japan–U.S. summit served not only as a diplomatic test for Japan,
but also as a mirror forcing the country to confront its own structural economic distortions.

Japan’s ¥80 trillion (approx. $550 billion) investment package in the United States—
effectively a “compensatory payment” for the reciprocal tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court has already ruled illegal.
The question of dispatching the Self-Defense Forces, which risks undermining Japan’s long‑cultivated trust in Middle Eastern diplomacy.
And the chronic shortage of domestic demand at the root of Japan–U.S. trade imbalances.

All of these reveal Japan’s structural vulnerabilities, pulled by the gravitational force of great-powerism.

So, which civilizational model should Japan choose?

I argue that the “advanced small‑power strategy” is Japan’s only viable path to survival,
and that achieving it requires a new “Three Arrows”:
monetary normalization, abolition of the consumption tax, and dismantling industrial policy.

This crisis is not merely a danger—it is a historic opportunity for Japan to reboot its future.
Let us examine the full picture through the lens of today’s four major newspaper editorials and a civilizational analysis.

---

I. Four Newspapers, One Event—Four Different Maps

This morning, Asahi, Mainichi, Yomiuri, and Nikkei all prominently covered yesterday’s summit between Prime Minister Takaichi and President Trump.
Yet despite discussing the same meeting, the four papers drew strikingly different maps.

• Asahi: The runaway of great-powerism and the crisis of the rule of law
• Mainichi: Japan should contribute through diplomacy, not military force
• Yomiuri: Build an international cooperative framework centered on the Japan–U.S. alliance
• Nikkei: A realist call for comprehensive national-interest judgment

These differences are not mere editorial preferences.
They reflect the deeper question: Which civilizational model will Japan choose?

In a blog post several days ago, I described the Hormuz crisis as “the terminal symptoms of great-powerism.”
A U.S. strike conducted outside the UN framework, Iran’s blockade of an international public good—
this is the moment when the logic of force begins to overpower the logic of law.

---

II. Asahi & Mainichi: Law and Diplomacy—The Core of Small-Power Strategy

1. Asahi: Appeasing great-powerism is national suicide for a small power

Asahi sharply criticized the U.S. violation of international law and the Japanese government’s refusal to legally assess it.

This is not a technical legal issue.
For a small-power state, the rule of law is the foundation of survival.

Turning a blind eye to great-power excesses
is equivalent to eroding the very basis of one’s own security.

2. Mainichi: Japan’s strength lies not in military power but in “network capital”

Mainichi emphasized Japan’s long-standing trust and diplomatic assets in the Middle East.
This is precisely what I call the core of small-power strategy:

• Not military power
• Not raw economic power
• But diplomatic networks and accumulated trust

These are the true weapons of a small power.

---

III. Yomiuri & Nikkei: Realism Between Great-Powerism and Small-Powerism

1. Yomiuri: Alliance-centered, yet acknowledging U.S. legal violations

Yomiuri stresses the Japan–U.S. alliance while admitting the possibility of U.S. illegality,
and proposes a UN-based international framework.

This is essentially a hybrid model between great-powerism and small-powerism.

2. Nikkei: The “technique of balance” among three axes

Nikkei frames Japan’s choices within a triangle:

• Energy security
• Rule of law
• The Japan–U.S. alliance

Civilizationally, this implies that small powers must master the technique of balancing multiple great powers.

---

IV. Civilizational Analysis: Japan Is Being Pulled by “Two Gravitational Forces”

Japan is being torn between two competing gravitational fields:

● The gravity of great-powerism

• The Japan–U.S. alliance
• U.S. political pressure
• Global energy instability

● The gravity of small-powerism

• Rule of law
• Diplomatic trust in the Middle East
• Potential for middle-power coalitions

This dual structure is both Japan’s greatest constraint and its greatest opportunity.

---

V. The ¥80 Trillion Project: A Great-Power Trap

— A “political payment” for tariffs ruled illegal by the U.S. Supreme Court

The Japanese government’s announcement of
a ¥80 trillion investment package in the U.S. (including SMR projects)
is deeply problematic.

This is not ordinary economic cooperation.
It is effectively a political payment demanded by the U.S.
after its reciprocal tariffs were ruled illegal.

Despite the Supreme Court ruling,
Japan continues to shoulder the “cleanup cost” through massive investment.

Civilizationally, this represents:

• A classic burden‑shifting mechanism in the senescence of great-powerism
• A form of dependency that small powers must avoid at all costs

---

VI. The Root of Japan–U.S. Trade Imbalance Is Japan’s Weak Domestic Demand

— The solution is not an ¥80 trillion project, but the new Three Arrows

The core of the trade imbalance lies in Japan’s chronically insufficient domestic demand:

• Three decades of deflationary conditions
• Prolonged ultra‑easy monetary policy
• Consumption tax suppressing demand
• Excessive corporate retained earnings
• Stagnant household disposable income

These factors have locked Japan into an export‑dependent economic structure.

Hence my proposal for the new Three Arrows.

---

VII. The New Three Arrows for Future Creation

— The foundation of a truly reciprocal Japan–U.S. relationship

● Arrow 1: Monetary Normalization

Correct the distortions of a weak yen, asset bubbles, and stagnant wages.
Restore a normal price structure to the Japanese economy.

● Arrow 2: Abolition of the Consumption Tax

Not merely a tax cut—
but a structural reform to revive domestic demand and reduce export dependence.

This alone would naturally shrink the Japan–U.S. trade imbalance.

● Arrow 3: Dismantling Industrial Policy (Opening the Door to Creative Destruction)

Instead of state‑engineered megaprojects like the ¥80 trillion package,
Japan must foster an environment where creative destruction can flourish:

• Deregulation
• Dismantling vested interests
• Free entry for new players
• Explosive growth of startups

These are essential for freeing Japan from great‑powerist rent‑seeking structures
and maximizing small‑power creativity.

---

VIII. Conclusion: A Truly Reciprocal Japan–U.S. Relationship Requires the “Advanced Small-Power Strategy”

For the Japan–U.S. relationship to become genuinely sustainable,
Japan must rebuild its own economic structure:

• Monetary normalization
• Abolition of the consumption tax
• Dismantling industrial policy

These are not mere economic policies.
They are civilizational choices—
choices that allow Japan to escape great‑powerist dependency
and reclaim the agency of an advanced small power.

Beyond that lies the possibility of
a truly reciprocal partnership between Japan and the United States.

Japan now stands at a historic moment—
a chance to present to the world a new civilizational model:
the advanced small‑power strategy.