**The Ghost of Great-Powerism and Hemingway
— From 1935 to Contemporary America, and Japan’s “Sanaenomics”**
In 1935, Ernest Hemingway sensed the shifting atmosphere of the world and wrote:
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war.”
The aftershocks of the Great Depression, the rise of fascism, monetary expansion, and the emphasis on external enemies—
what he saw was the recurring habit of civilization when a nation falls into anxiety.
And today, in our own time,
the narrative of “greatness” rises cyclically in the United States,
while in Japan, a new discourse known as “Sanaenomics” is drawing attention.
When a nation becomes anxious,
what kind of stories do people cling to,
and what kind of language does politics choose?
Using Hemingway’s warning as a guide,
let us read the current positions of America and Japan through the long arc of civilizational history.
1｜Why did Hemingway declare in 1935: “Inflation or war”?
Hemingway was a writer acutely sensitive to the smell of war.
Not because he was well-versed in politics,
but because he was sensitive to the smell of political lies.
At eighteen, he was sent to the Italian front, blown apart by artillery fire,
and learned that the government’s propaganda of a “heroic war”
was in reality nothing more than a mixture of mud, blood, and screams.
So when he looked at the world of 1935,
he must have felt a sense of déjà vu.
The world was suffering from the aftereffects of the Great Depression,
and nations began speaking of “greatness,” “external enemies,” “armament,” and “currency.”
Hemingway must have thought:
“Ah, it’s starting again.”
And thus the famous line was born:
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war.”
This was not mere political criticism.
He saw the recurring habit of civilization.
2｜Why does civilization become intoxicated by Great-Powerism?
Looking across the history of civilization, one finds a strange rhythm.
When a nation grows tired, when its economy stagnates, when people become anxious,
voices proclaiming “greatness” begin to rise from nowhere.
“Protect our borders.”
“External enemies threaten us.”
“We can become great again.”
This pattern repeated in ancient Rome, in the empires of the 19th century,
and in Europe of the 1930s.
Great-Powerism is like a spell
that transforms anxiety into pride.
But that spell often comes with side effects—
inflation and military expansion.
Hemingway knew these side effects all too well from the First World War.
3｜The scent of Great-Powerism drifting through modern America
In contemporary American politics,
a Great-Powerist narrative appears cyclically.
This is not about any specific individual,
but about the structural tremors inherent in a vast nation like the United States.
When the economy wavers,
when immigration issues flare,
when international competition intensifies,
America begins to speak of “greatness.”
- Strengthening borders
- Emphasizing competition with foreign nations
- National revival
- Externalizing domestic discontent
- Fiscal expansion and protectionist policies
These resemble the structural features of Great-Powerism in the 1930s.
What Hemingway perceived was
the typical reaction of a great power in a state of anxiety.
4｜And now to Japan: What does “Sanaenomics” represent?
Turning to Japan,
the term “Sanaenomics” has emerged in recent years,
and its policy ideas and messaging have drawn attention.
What matters here is not whether it is “good” or “bad,”
but where it sits within the long arc of civilizational history.
Debates around Sanaenomics often involve themes such as:
- National self-reliance
- Strengthening defense capabilities
- Economic security
- National pride
- External threats
- The role of fiscal policy
- Emphasis on national “revival” or “strength”
These are typical elements of Great-Powerist narratives
seen in many countries around the world.
Of course, Japan’s context differs from that of America or 1930s Europe.
But viewed through the long lens of civilization,
the pattern of narratives that emerge when a nation is anxious
is strikingly similar.
5｜The stories summoned by Japan’s anxiety
Japan now faces population decline, geopolitical tension, economic stagnation,
and questions about the very shape of the nation.
In such anxious times,
a nation often seeks a “story.”
“A strong Japan.”
“An independent Japan.”
“A proud Japan.”
These function as psychological pillars
to ease the public’s anxiety.
The attention given to Sanaenomics likely reflects
a longing for such national narratives.
6｜What would Hemingway see?
In 1935, Hemingway watched a world trembling with anxiety,
as nations began speaking of “greatness,” “external enemies,” “currency,” and “armament,”
and he must have thought:
“This is a matter of human psychology.”
When a nation becomes anxious, it:
- Emphasizes external enemies
- Seeks pride
- Speaks of greatness
- Expands fiscal spending
- Covers economic pain with a narrative
This pattern appears not only in 1930s Europe,
but also in contemporary America,
and in modern Japan.
Debates around Sanaenomics can be understood as
one such narrative that emerges when a nation is shaken by anxiety.
7｜Conclusion: Does Hemingway’s warning resonate in Japan?
In 1935, Hemingway watched nations become intoxicated
by stories of “greatness” amid global anxiety,
and he issued a warning:
“Inflation and war are the panaceas of a mismanaged government.”
This was not aimed at any specific country or politician.
It was a diagnosis of the psychological structure
that civilizations repeat when they fall into anxiety.
And that structure casts a quiet but unmistakable shadow
over contemporary America
and over Japan’s policy debates.
When a nation trembles with uncertainty,
what future do we choose?
What stories do we believe?
Civilization’s rhythm may not be changeable.
But we can become aware of that rhythm.
Hemingway’s words remain before us today
as a light to illuminate that awareness.
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