“Japan Will Rise Again as a Small Nation — Beyond Two Centuries of the Black Ship Complex”* Episode 2 “The Four Waves of External Pressure — From the Phaeton Incident to the Black Ships”**

 **[New Series]

“Japan Will Rise Again as a Small Nation — Beyond Two Centuries of the Black Ship Complex”**

**Episode 2

“The Four Waves of External Pressure — From the Phaeton Incident to the Black Ships”**

The Four Waves of External Pressure — The Black Ships Were Not a Sudden Shock

Many Japanese remember the arrival of the Black Ships as a “sudden shock.”
But in reality, for half a century before Perry’s arrival, Japan had already been exposed to four waves of external pressure.

What is crucial is this:
The shogunate interpreted external pressure not as fear, but as an opportunity for learning.
From this perspective, Japan’s modern history begins to look entirely different.

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1. The First Wave: The Phaeton Incident (1808) — The Initial Shock

In 1808, the British warship HMS Phaeton suddenly intruded into Nagasaki.
For the shogunate, this incident served as a “trailer” for the Black Ships.

• Vulnerability of coastal defense
• Rapid shifts in global geopolitics
• Delays in information gathering

Triggered by this event, the shogunate began strengthening coastal defenses and modernizing intelligence collection.
In other words, it treated external pressure not as a “crisis,” but as a learning opportunity.

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2. The Second Wave: Qing’s Defeat (Opium War, 1840) — The Shock to Asia

Qing China’s defeat in the Opium War was not a distant event for Japan.

• A major Asian power defeated by Europe
• Imposition of unequal treaties
• Loss of sovereignty

The shogunate analyzed the situation calmly and concluded:
“Japan could face the same fate.”
Once again, it learned not fear, but the necessity of institutional reform.

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3. The Third Wave: Russia’s Southward Expansion (Early 19th Century) — Pressure from the North

The Russian Empire’s southward advance heightened tensions around Ezo (Hokkaido).
In response, the shogunate took highly rational measures:

• Strengthening northern defenses
• Bringing Ezo under direct shogunate control
• Training interpreters in the Russian language

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4. The Fourth Wave: America’s Pacific Expansion (1840s–50s) — The Prelude to the Black Ships

Driven by whaling, trade, and the expansion of Pacific routes,
the United States intensified its approach toward Japan.

The shogunate recognized this trend and prepared diplomatic strategies in advance.
Thus, the arrival of the Black Ships was not sudden, but rather the final stage of a predictable sequence of external pressures.

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5. The Shogunate’s Response Was “Small-Nation Realism”

Across all four waves, the shogunate consistently demonstrated:

• Turning external pressure into learning
• Avoiding reckless military expansion
• Responding realistically according to national capacity

This small-nation rationality overturns the conventional belief that
“the shogunate was incompetent.”

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Next Episode Preview

Next time, we will explore:

“The Shogunate’s Small-Nation Strategy — The Rationality That Turned External Pressure into Learning.”

Why was the shogunate able to interpret external pressure not as fear, but as learning?
The answer lies in a certain deep characteristic of Japanese civilization.

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