Series No. 9 – The Civilizational Significance of the Treaty of Peace and Amity & the Treaty of Amity and Commerce between Japan and the United States
— The Spirit of “Opening the Country” as the Origin of Future Creation
— “Dialogue of Civilizations” Revealed by the Black Ships of the Late Edo Period and by AI, the Black Ships of Today
January 21, 2026 (Wed.)
1. Japan’s Crisis Is a Crisis of “Stagnation”
As examined throughout this series, contemporary Japan is facing:
- A fivefold surge in gold prices
- The collapse of the yen’s purchasing power
- Dysfunction in the government bond market
- Rising OIS
- The emotionalization of politics (the Takaichi dissolution)
- The loss of fiscal sustainability
In short, Japan is at the extreme limit of institutional exhaustion.
Yet the essence of this crisis is neither economic nor political.
It is civilizational stagnation.
- A refusal to look outward
- Protection of vested interests
- Dependence on bureaucratic control
- Prolonging the past through industrial policy
- Neglecting resource allocation toward the future
This structure mirrors the stagnation Japan fell into at the end of the Edo period.
2. The Black Ships Opened a “Dialogue of Civilizations”
The Black Ships of the late Edo period were not merely a military threat.
They were the gateway to a dialogue of civilizations.
What they confronted Japan with was not force, but the power of civilization:
- A global standard of time (interest and rates)
- International law
- Free trade
- Science and technology
- Market economics
- Individual liberty
The Treaty of Peace and Amity and the Treaty of Amity and Commerce marked the moment Japan first chose civilizational dialogue.
3. The Meiji Restoration Was Not a Dialogue of Civilizations, but an Imitation of Empire
Reviving the spirit of this “dialogue of civilizations” is crucial today.
The opening of Japan in the late Edo period was a peaceful, civilizational opening.
But the Meiji Restoration shifted toward imitation of the British Empire—
a path of “rich nation, strong army” and state capitalism:
- Bureaucratic control
- Industrial policy
- Militarization
- Imperialism
- Total national mobilization
This is the origin of Abenomics and Sanaenomics.
Therefore, invoking the “Meiji Restoration” when discussing future creation is dangerous.
Future creation must return to the spirit of opening the country.
4. AI Is the “Black Ships of Today”
AI is the modern Black Ships.
Because AI exerts civilizational external pressure by:
- Destroying vested interests
- Nullifying bureaucratic control
- Rendering industrial policy meaningless
- Reconstructing the time system (interest and rates)
- Accelerating creative destruction
- Imposing new global civilizational standards
Just as the Black Ships guided Japan toward opening,
AI is the Black Ships guiding Japan toward future creation.
5. The New Three Arrows of Future Creation Are the Modern Version of the “Spirit of Opening”
The new Three Arrows proposed in this series align almost perfectly with the opening spirit of the late Edo period.
① Normalization of interest rates (restoring the time system)
The modern version of the “global standard of time” imposed by the Black Ships.
② Abolition of the consumption tax (resource allocation to the future)
The modern version of “investment in the future” brought by the opening.
③ Abolition of industrial policy (opening to creative destruction)
The modern version of “free creation” enabled by the opening.
In other words,
the new Three Arrows of future creation are the reboot of the opening spirit.
6. The Treaties of Peace and Amity & Amity and Commerce Are Keys to the “Future of Civilization”
- Treaty of Peace and Amity
- Treaty of Amity and Commerce
- Re-evaluation of Japan’s opening
- Dialogue of civilizations
- Peaceful future creation
These are the antidotes to the crisis facing modern Japan.
Because Japan’s ability to create its future depends on whether it can once again choose civilizational dialogue.
Stagnation or opening
Bureaucratic control or creative destruction
Prolonging the past or creating the future
Imitation of empire or dialogue of civilizations
Japan stands at the same crossroads as in the late Edo period.
7. Conclusion: Future Creation Is the Modern Return of the “Spirit of Opening”
The new Three Arrows of future creation are not mere policies.
- Normalization of interest rates = restoration of the civilizational time system
- Abolition of the consumption tax = resource allocation to the future
- Abolition of industrial policy = opening to creative destruction
And AI = the Black Ships of civilization.
This is the modern return of the spirit of opening the country.
Japan now stands at a crossroads:
Opening or stagnation
Future creation or institutional exhaustion
Civilizational reboot or currency crisis
The choice lies before us.
Tomo Nakamaru
Former World Bank Economist
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