The Double-Down Delusion

 

“The Double-Down Delusion: How Reflationist Overconfidence Threatens Japan’s Economic Stability”

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A Morning of Disbelief

This morning’s Reuters article left me speechless.
The sheer overconfidence of Japan’s reflationist camp—untethered from evidence and steeped in arrogance—is beyond comprehension.
It is no longer a matter of debate, but a matter of national peril.

41 Months of Inflation and the Fourfold Curse

Since April 2022, the Japanese government and Bank of Japan have allowed inflation to exceed 2% for 41 consecutive months.
This prolonged inflation has deepened Japan’s “fourfold curse”: declining birthrates, stagnant consumption, currency depreciation, and rising prices.
All are direct consequences of the misguided continuation of reflationary policies since Abenomics.

The Limits of Wakatabe’s Expertise

Masazumi Wakatabe, former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan and now professor at Waseda University, is a scholar of economic history—not open macroeconomics.
With all due respect, it is doubtful he even grasps the Taylor Principle as taught by Harvard’s Gregory Mankiw: that policy interest rates must remain above the inflation rate in real terms.
This is not a minor oversight—it is a fundamental blind spot.

Reflationists’ Irresponsibility and the Rise of Sanaenomics

The reflationist camp has consistently refused to acknowledge its errors, revealing a bottomless irresponsibility.
Now, Sanaenomics—under newly elected LDP President Sanae Takaichi—threatens to double down on these failed policies.
This reckless amplification of reflationist dogma could accelerate inflation, inflate asset bubbles, and push Japan toward economic ruin.

Just as it did in a previous war.

The Dangerous Path Ahead

By autumn of Reiwa 7 (2025), Japan marks 80 years since the end of World War II.
Yet today, the nation faces a new kind of conflagration:
An inflationary gap (aggregate demand > aggregate supply), a weakening yen, surging prices, and a swelling bubble—all fueled by the dangerous double-down tactics of the reflationists.
Japan risks losing control, while ordinary citizens may be burned by the flames of soaring living costs.

 

A Nation at the Crossroads

Japan stands at a critical juncture.
The double-down delusion of Sanaenomics threatens to unleash a vicious cycle of inflation, asset bubbles, and currency collapse.
If left unchecked, this path could lead to systemic failure and widespread hardship.

It is time to confront the errors of the past, reject the arrogance of the reflationists, and restore responsible economic stewardship—before the flames consume us all.